Outlook 2011
a Business Voice Specialty Publication
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Is there a tougher job than predicting the future? Is there a more fun job than trying? This special edition of Business Voice is dedicated to giving a preview if not a prediction of what we can expect in 2011. Hopefully it will also serve as a useful tool for anyone who wants an overview of the market in Halifax and in Nova Scotia specifically for the things that matter most to business.
What we have tried to do is take the stats that we see on a daily basis and combine them with some commentary about what they mean and why they’re important. Then use our inside knowledge to tell you what the empty box marked 2011 may say.
2011 marks the fifth year the Chamber has been producing the Economic Strategy Scorecard, which uses measures determined by those who produced Halifax’s Economic Strategy to measure its progress. This experience has taught us several lessons that we have brought to this project. The first is that many of the statistics we use to measure our economy and our society aren’t current and aren’t updated on a regular basis. It takes time to compile this information and more time to drill down through it to municipalities and even neighbourhoods. Much is also derived from the census, meaning we’re often working with numbers from 2006.
The second lesson is that there’s always a back-story to the tale the numbers seem to tell. The Port of Halifax is a good example. A cursory look at the volumes the port was handling in the last few years would seem to indicate a major problem, until one saw the pictures of hundreds of container ships moored offshore in need of cargo to carry.
The final and perhaps most important lesson is to consider the time gap between effort and outcome before judging a strategy a failure based on numbers that aren’t a reflection of the effort expended.
Even with these learnings we know the stats presented aren’t perfect and using them in predicting the future is anything but certain. However, imperfect information is better than no information and leaders need to be able to make decisions with imperfect information.



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